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<br /> INSIGHT<br /> 2016 GLOBAL ENERGY OUTLOOK<br /> December 2015<br /> GLOBAL REBALANCING<br /> The energy sector seeks a new equilibrium<br /> CARBON RISK RISING<br /> A future of emissions mitigation beckons<br /> MOOD SWINGS<br /> Where is the upside to oil prices?<br /> NOTES ON AN EMISSIONS SCANDAL<br /> Biofuels and the lessons from VW<br /> PLUS: OPEC ON SHIFTING SANDS<br /> EUROPE BENDING IN THE WIND<br /> MAGHREB MISERY: NORTH AFRICA<br /> IN CRISIS<br /> www.platts.com<br /> A NEW FOCUS ON FINANCIAL<br /> OVERSIGHT<br /> An in-depth look at the winners of<br /> the Platts Global Energy Awards<br /> DELIVERING<br /> ENTERPRISE-WIDE<br /> SOLUTIONS<br /> &RPPXQLFDWLRQDFURVV\RXUIURQWPLGDQGEDFNRIĆFHLVHVVHQWLDOWR<br /> \RXURUJDQL]DWLRQèVVXFFHVV*OREDO9LHZKHOSVWKHPVSHDNWKHVDPH<br /> ODQJXDJHZLWKDFFXUDWHDQGUHOLDEOHFRPPRGLW\PDUNHWGDWD<br /> · Single source for reliable market and proprietary data eliminates confusion<br /> · Seamless integration with dow<a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 1" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=1"> INSIGHT 2016 GLOBAL ENERGY OUTLOOK December 2015 </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 2" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=2"> DELIVERING ENTERPRISE-WIDE SOLUTIONS </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 3" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=3"> INSIGHT December 2015 CONTENTS GLOBAL REBALANCIN</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 4" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=4"> ALISDAIR BOWLES Editor EDITOR'S NOTE There are </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 5" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=5"> Global Energy Leaders Innovation and investment t</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 6" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=6"> ROSS McCRACKEN EDITOR ENERGY ECONOMIST GLOBAL R</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 7" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=7"> HYDROCARBONS ECONOMY </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 8" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=8"> HYDROCARBONS ECONOMY compared with an aver</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 9" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=9"> Urbanization is also thought by many studies to h</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 10" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=10"> 2014. In March, the EIA forecast that OPEC's net </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 11" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=11"> ln Energy Transactions THE PROOF </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 12" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=12"> FRANK WATSON MANAGING EDITOR CARBON MARKETS CAR</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 13" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=13"> in 2009 failed to deliver a meaningful global acc</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 14" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=14"> The danger for the fossil fuel companies is that </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 15" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=15"> “If ratings agencies fail investors, individuals,</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 16" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=16"> GLOBAL CLIMATE POLICY of environmental reg</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 17" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=17"> competing directly with fossil fuel generation an</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 18" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=18"> VANDANA HARI EDITORIAL DIRECTOR ASIA LOSING SUP</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 19" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=19"> preoccupation with the bigger issues around price</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 20" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=20"> ASIA system that has come under criticism </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 21" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=21"> ASIA opted to forgo the LPG subsidy by Aug</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 22" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=22"> MARGARET MCQUAILE SENIOR CORRESPONDENT ON SHIFT</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 23" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=23"> OPEC But if Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 24" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=24"> OPEC The price collapse was already well u</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 25" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=25"> exports through projects involving international </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 26" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=26"> OPEC Assuming the International Atomic Ene</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 27" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=27"> JEFF MOWER REFINING EDITORIAL </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 28" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=28"> REFINING Fortunes were more mixed for re </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 29" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=29"> Delays around the world in building new refinery </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 30" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=30"> NICOLE LEONARD PLATTS BENTEK MOOD SWINGS LOOKI</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 31" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=31"> Similarly, the US began the decade as a net impor</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 32" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=32"> price of oil continued to decline. Few producers </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 33" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=33"> Does this make the US the world's new swing produ</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 34" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=34"> NICK COLEMAN SENIOR EDITOR OIL NEWS SURVIVAL OF</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 35" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=35"> oil output to fall by 800,000-900,000 barrels a d</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 36" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=36"> UPSTREAM INDUSTRY governments to reform ha</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 37" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=37"> re ning segment that includes a new joint ventur</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 38" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=38"> TIM WORLEDGE EDITOR IN CHIEF AGRICULTURE NOTES </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 39" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=39"> Courtesy: iStock.com </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 40" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=40"> BIOFUELS of Schadenfreude at VW's expense.</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 41" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=41"> BIOFUELS that information and collate it i</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 42" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=42"> ANDREW MOORE MANAGING EDITOR US COAL COAL BLUES</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 43" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=43"> JEFFREY RYSER US POWER SENIOR WRITER</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 44" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=44"> US COAL COA</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 45" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=45"> US COAL `Generally speaking, utilities ar</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 46" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=46"> US COAL In 2008, when coal production </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 47" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=47"> service in 2012, and while there are several coal</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 48" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=48"> US POWER US POWER </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 49" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=49"> is responsible for approximately 5.4 billion mt o</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 50" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=50"> US POWER wind capacity of 192,000 MW could</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 51" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=51"> NADIA RODOVA RUSSIAN OIL MANAGING EDITOR </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 52" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=52"> RUSSIAN OIL oppositi</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 53" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=53"> RUSSIAN OIL million b/d) in 2015 then at</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 54" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=54"> RUSSIAN OIL There are grounds for Russia </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 55" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=55"> RUSSIAN OIL South Korea and a number of ot</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 56" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=56"> SIOBHAN HALL SENIOR EDITOR EU ENERGY POLICY BEN</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 57" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=57"> EUROPEAN ENERGY Even if the speci c gur</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 58" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=58"> EUROPEAN ENERGY The more pressing issu</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 59" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=59"> EUROPEAN ENERGY INNOVATING IN OFFSHORE WI</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 60" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=60"> ANDREAS FRANKE MANAGING EDITOR EUROPEAN POWER </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 61" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=61"> GERMANY casualties of the Energiewende, al</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 62" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=62"> GERMANY especially if there is some wind t</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 63" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=63"> usage due to improved e ciency, the pressure on</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 64" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=64"> STUART ELLIOT SENIOR WRITER GAS AND LNG MAGHREB</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 65" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=65"> Analysts see any political breakthrough as probab</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 66" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=66"> For sure, Algeria has a lot riding on the oil pri</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 67" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=67"> Energy consultant Ali Aissaoui believes Khebri wi</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 68" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=68"> NORTH AFRICA Algeria seemed to have turne</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 69" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=69"> SILVINA ALDECO </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 70" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=70"> OIL & GAS FINANCE This contrast between ac</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 71" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=71"> On the ip side, the Exploration & Production su</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 72" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=72"> OIL & GAS FINANCE with €4.9 billion invest</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 73" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=73"> OIL & GAS FINANCE Co</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 74" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=74"> SPECIAL ADVERTISING SECTION INDUSTRY LEADER PROF</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 75" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=75"> ANADARKO PETROLEUM CORP Anadarko is among the wo</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 76" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=76"> SPECIAL ADVERTISING SECTION INDUSTRY LEADER PROF</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 77" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=77"> BRUCE POWER Bruce Power is Canada's rst privat</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 78" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=78"> SPECIAL ADVERTISING SECTION INDUSTRY LEADER PROF</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 79" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=79"> MYTRAH ENERGY Operating in the most exciting pow</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 80" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=80"> An Enduring Commitment to Commodities We've bee</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 81" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=81"> SPECIAL ADVERTISING SECTION INDUSTRY LEADER PROF</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 82" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=82"> An Enduring Commitment to Commodities We've bee</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 83" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=83"> SPECIAL ADVERTISING SECTION INDUSTRY LEADER PROF</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 84" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=84"> PAVILION ENERGY PTE LTD Pavilion Energy is a Tem</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 85" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=85"> SPECIAL ADVERTISING SECTION INDUSTRY LEADER PROF</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 86" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=86"> RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD (RIL) Our motto, `Growth</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 87" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=87"> SPECIAL ADVERTISING SECTION INDUSTRY LEADER PROF</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 88" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=88"> RESTORE REstore is an energy technology company </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 89" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=89"> SPECIAL ADVERTISING SECTION INDUSTRY LEADER PROF</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 90" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=90"> SEMIRARA MINING & POWER CORP Semirara Mining and </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 91" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=91"> SPECIAL ADVERTISING SECTION INDUSTRY LEADER PROF</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 92" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=92"> YASREF The Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Re ning Company</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 93" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=93"> MURRAY FISHER Senior Manager Platts Global Energy</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 94" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=94"> ENERGY COMPANY OF THE YEAR Repsol Spain Judges se</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 95" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=95"> GLOBAL ENERGY AWARDS withstand the area's </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 96" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=96"> SolarReserve rst exclusively licensed and then </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 97" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=97"> GLOBAL ENERGY AWARDS ENERGY IN</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 98" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=98"> The agreements shot Dynegy from the eighth to thi</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 99" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=99"> GLOBAL ENERGY AWARDS played o ense, not d</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 100" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=100"> region, raising gas production revenues between $</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 101" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=101"> GLOBAL ENERGY AWARDS Infrastructure Manage</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 102" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=102"> pro tability and company values. This year's win</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 103" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=103"> GLOBAL ENERGY AWARDS The sheer size of the</a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 104" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=104"> generates, distributes or consumes power onboard </a> <a title="2015_GEA_Insight_zmags page 105" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/1a3bb868?page=105"> Qatar ENERGY for life </a>