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Best regards
Zmags
Safegu
BUILDING STRON
®
arding assets
GER PORTFOLIOS FOR TURBULENT TIMES
OUTLOOK2019
Watchlist
Make sure your portfolio is strong.
Compare your holdings to our
Outlook recommendations.
Failing to follow a disciplined long-term investment plan
poses many risks to your wealth.
To help keep your portfolio aligned to your recommended
allocation and to our investment themes, we can provide
you with a detailed report showing how your portfolio
compares to key benchmarks.
Your relationship team can then recommend ways for you
to address any issues identified.
More than 3,250 clients received their personalized Outlook
Watchlist report in 2018.* Why not request yours from your
relationship team today?
*as of 30 Sep 2018. Recommended allocation is the reference allocation that reflects our understanding of your investment
objectives and
Safegu BUILDING STRON ® arding assets GE
OUTLOOK2019 Watchlist Make sure your portfolio
Private Banking for Global Citizens
INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT FDIC INSURED · NOT C
Safeguarding assets BUILDING STRONGER PORTFOLIOS
Contents 7 Foreword 10 Overv
FOREWORD How to invest in 2019 David Bailin | C
8 OUTLOOK 2019
By watching the guideposts, you can then make por
OUTLOOK 2019 Building st portfolios f turbulen
FIGURE 1. GRADUAL FED TIGHTENING Fed funds less h
OUTLOOK 2019
What central bank policy tightening means for por
OUTLOOK 2019
The history of markets suggests that the good rec
OUTLOOK 2019
Overview FIGURE 7. US YIELD CURVE INVERSIO
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The US economy has added 12 million jobs since th
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Thirdly, while we noted in Outlook 2018 that disr
22 OUTLOOK 2019
Ire over Iran The US trade dispute with China is
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A better way via AVS Investors do not need to sh
Understanding return expectations We do not bel
27
OUTLOOK 2019 This is not for market Gregory
Asset allocation FIGURE 2. ANNUAL S&P 500
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FIGURE 4. MARKET TIMING VS BUY AND HOLD 1997-2016
OUTLOOK 2019 The long-t outlook fo asset class
Overview FIGURE 1. STRATEGIC RETURN ESTIM
Investing with Purpose 34
35
OUTLOOK 2019 Invest with Purpo Stephanie Birrell
Our clients’ values We know that global citizens
OUTLOOK 2019
Investing with Purpose FIGURE 1. HIGHER ES
OUTLOOK 2019 ESG equity credentials by country
Investing with Purpose I EUROPE
OUTLOOK 2019
Investing with Purpose FIGURE 3. THE SPECT
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Investing with Purpose Our commitment to a be
perspectives Portfolio
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Portfolio perspectives EUROPE EQUITIES
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Growth may also turn higher in India, where fiscal
OUTLOOK 2019
FIGURE 3. A-SHARE VALUATIONS AT 2014 LEVELS PE 2
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FIGURE 5. OUR FAVORED ASIA SECTORS Mkt cap
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Portfolio perspectives FIGURE 7. ASIA EX-J
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Portfolio perspectives Currencies
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In early 2018, an escalation of trade tensions be
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FIGURE 2. EUROPE VALUATIONS Mkt cap
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The brightest outlook in Europe remains in the he
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Latin Ame Slower gro political ch Jorge Amato
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Structural fiscal reforms are likely to be a top p
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Portfolio perspectives FIGURE 3. LATIN AME
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Election results in Mexico and Brazil were initia
74 OUTLOOK 2019
North America: Late-cycle wisdom and actions C
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US-China relations remain complicated. Tariffs ha
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Follow the dividends! In late-cycle conditions l
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Portfolio perspectives Our strong case
Our themes
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opportunities that can also help diversify your p
86
Make y work m Kris Xippolitos | Global Head of
88 OUTLOOK 2019
% 6 . 6 . 3 1 % % 8 3 .1 2 % % 8 3 . 9
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Structured credit may add portfolio strength Str
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Real estate related fixed income With the US econ
NOTES It should be noted that
S as afeguarding sets -- INTELLIGENT EXPOSURE T
OUTLOOK 2019 Safeg assets Steven Wieting | Ch
Inte to a mar Safeguarding assets
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Strategies that provide a payment at maturity can
OUTLOOK 2019 Manage yo leverage Kris Xip
Leverage is costing more The cost of leverage is
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Global the co Steven Wieting | Ch Safeguard
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Safeguarding assets BEST PE
Un tre stoppable nds -- THE RISE OF ASIA -- -
OUTLOOK 2019 Unsto trends Steven Wieting | Chi
Unstoppable trends By contrast, failing to
OUTLOOK 2019 The rise of Asia Steven Wietin
Unstoppable trends FIGURE 2. EM ASIA’S RIS
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EASTERN PROMISE GDP ($ BILLION)
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FIGURE 5. EM ASIA UNDERREPRESENTED IN BENCHMARKS
OUTLOOK 2019 Increasing longevity Rob Jasmin
Longer lives, fewer children The origins of toda
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with these and other treatments to be increasingl
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Unstoppable trends FIGURE 2. HEALTHCARE’S
OUTLOOK 2019 Digital disruption Phil Watson
In manufacturing, the way goods are made and even
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Artificial intelligence Machines are getting smar
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Blockchain Blockchain is another disruptive tech
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Blockchain: Users & uses GOVERNMENT & CENTRAL B
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While digital disruption can take its time, howev
132 OUTLOOK TEAM
IAIN ARMITAGE GLOBAL HEAD OF CAP
Glossary ASSET CLASS DEFINITIONS Cash is repre
The Euro Stoxx 600 represents large-, mid-
Disclosures In any instance whe
transactions, the investor considering options sh
may result in a downgrade of a mo
There can be no assurance that the use of any BRR
According to the Financial Times’ Professiona
Private Banking for Global Citizens