If you are visually impaired or blind, you can visit the PDF version by Pressing CONTROL + ALT + 4
<br /> Safegu<br /> BUILDING STRON<br /> ®<br /> arding assets<br /> GER PORTFOLIOS FOR TURBULENT TIMES<br /> OUTLOOK2019<br /> Watchlist<br /> Make sure your portfolio is strong.<br /> Compare your holdings to our<br /> Outlook recommendations.<br /> Failing to follow a disciplined long-term investment plan<br /> poses many risks to your wealth.<br /> To help keep your portfolio aligned to your recommended<br /> allocation and to our investment themes, we can provide<br /> you with a detailed report showing how your portfolio<br /> compares to key benchmarks.<br /> Your relationship team can then recommend ways for you<br /> to address any issues identified.<br /> More than 3,250 clients received their personalized Outlook<br /> Watchlist report in 2018.* Why not request yours from your<br /> relationship team today?<br /> *as of 30 Sep 2018. Recommended allocation is the reference allocation that reflects our understanding of your investment<br /> objectives and<a title="Outlook 2019 page 1" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=1"> Safegu BUILDING STRON ® arding assets GE</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 2" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=2"> OUTLOOK2019 Watchlist Make sure your portfolio</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 3" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=3"> Private Banking for Global Citizens</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 4" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=4"> INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT FDIC INSURED · NOT C</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 5" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=5"> Safeguarding assets BUILDING STRONGER PORTFOLIOS</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 6" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=6"> Contents 7 Foreword 10 Overv</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 7" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=7"> FOREWORD How to invest in 2019 David Bailin | C</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 8" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=8"> 8 OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 9" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=9"> By watching the guideposts, you can then make por</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 10" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=10"> OUTLOOK 2019 Building st portfolios f turbulen</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 11" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=11"> FIGURE 1. GRADUAL FED TIGHTENING Fed funds less h</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 12" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=12"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 13" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=13"> What central bank policy tightening means for por</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 14" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=14"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 15" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=15"> The history of markets suggests that the good rec</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 16" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=16"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 17" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=17"> Overview FIGURE 7. US YIELD CURVE INVERSIO</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 18" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=18"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 19" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=19"> The US economy has added 12 million jobs since th</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 20" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=20"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 21" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=21"> Thirdly, while we noted in Outlook 2018 that disr</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 22" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=22"> 22 OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 23" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=23"> Ire over Iran The US trade dispute with China is</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 24" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=24"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 25" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=25"> A better way via AVS Investors do not need to sh</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 26" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=26"> Understanding return expectations We do not bel</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 27" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=27"> 27</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 28" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=28"> OUTLOOK 2019 This is not for market Gregory</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 29" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=29"> Asset allocation FIGURE 2. ANNUAL S&P 500 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 30" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=30"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 31" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=31"> FIGURE 4. MARKET TIMING VS BUY AND HOLD 1997-2016</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 32" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=32"> OUTLOOK 2019 The long-t outlook fo asset class</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 33" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=33"> Overview FIGURE 1. STRATEGIC RETURN ESTIM</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 34" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=34"> Investing with Purpose 34</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 35" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=35"> 35</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 36" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=36"> OUTLOOK 2019 Invest with Purpo Stephanie Birrell</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 37" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=37"> Our clients’ values We know that global citizens</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 38" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=38"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 39" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=39"> Investing with Purpose FIGURE 1. HIGHER ES</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 40" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=40"> OUTLOOK 2019 ESG equity credentials by country </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 41" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=41"> Investing with Purpose I EUROPE </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 42" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=42"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 43" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=43"> Investing with Purpose FIGURE 3. THE SPECT</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 44" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=44"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 45" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=45"> Investing with Purpose Our commitment to a be</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 46" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=46"> perspectives Portfolio</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 47" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=47"> </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 48" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=48"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 49" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=49"> Portfolio perspectives EUROPE EQUITIES </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 50" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=50"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 51" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=51"> Growth may also turn higher in India, where fiscal</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 52" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=52"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 53" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=53"> FIGURE 3. A-SHARE VALUATIONS AT 2014 LEVELS PE 2</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 54" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=54"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 55" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=55"> FIGURE 5. OUR FAVORED ASIA SECTORS Mkt cap </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 56" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=56"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 57" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=57"> Portfolio perspectives FIGURE 7. ASIA EX-J</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 58" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=58"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 59" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=59"> Portfolio perspectives Currencies </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 60" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=60"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 61" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=61"> In early 2018, an escalation of trade tensions be</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 62" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=62"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 63" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=63"> FIGURE 2. EUROPE VALUATIONS Mkt cap </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 64" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=64"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 65" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=65"> The brightest outlook in Europe remains in the he</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 66" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=66"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 67" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=67"> Latin Ame Slower gro political ch Jorge Amato </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 68" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=68"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 69" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=69"> Structural fiscal reforms are likely to be a top p</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 70" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=70"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 71" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=71"> Portfolio perspectives FIGURE 3. LATIN AME</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 72" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=72"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 73" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=73"> Election results in Mexico and Brazil were initia</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 74" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=74"> 74 OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 75" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=75"> North America: Late-cycle wisdom and actions C</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 76" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=76"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 77" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=77"> US-China relations remain complicated. Tariffs ha</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 78" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=78"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 79" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=79"> Follow the dividends! In late-cycle conditions l</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 80" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=80"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 81" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=81"> Portfolio perspectives Our strong case </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 82" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=82"> Our themes</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 83" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=83"> </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 84" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=84"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 85" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=85"> opportunities that can also help diversify your p</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 86" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=86"> 86</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 87" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=87"> Make y work m Kris Xippolitos | Global Head of </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 88" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=88"> 88 OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 89" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=89"> % 6 . 6 . 3 1 % % 8 3 .1 2 % % 8 3 . 9 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 90" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=90"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 91" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=91"> Structured credit may add portfolio strength Str</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 92" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=92"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 93" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=93"> Real estate related fixed income With the US econ</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 94" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=94"> NOTES It should be noted that</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 95" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=95"> S as afeguarding sets -- INTELLIGENT EXPOSURE T</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 96" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=96"> OUTLOOK 2019 Safeg assets Steven Wieting | Ch</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 97" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=97"> Inte to a mar Safeguarding assets </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 98" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=98"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 99" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=99"> Strategies that provide a payment at maturity can</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 100" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=100"> OUTLOOK 2019 Manage yo leverage Kris Xip</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 101" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=101"> Leverage is costing more The cost of leverage is</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 102" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=102"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 103" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=103"> Global the co Steven Wieting | Ch Safeguard</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 104" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=104"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 105" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=105"> Safeguarding assets BEST PE</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 106" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=106"> </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 107" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=107"> Un tre stoppable nds -- THE RISE OF ASIA -- -</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 108" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=108"> OUTLOOK 2019 Unsto trends Steven Wieting | Chi</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 109" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=109"> Unstoppable trends By contrast, failing to</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 110" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=110"> OUTLOOK 2019 The rise of Asia Steven Wietin</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 111" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=111"> Unstoppable trends FIGURE 2. EM ASIA’S RIS</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 112" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=112"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 113" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=113"> EASTERN PROMISE GDP ($ BILLION) </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 114" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=114"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 115" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=115"> FIGURE 5. EM ASIA UNDERREPRESENTED IN BENCHMARKS </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 116" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=116"> OUTLOOK 2019 Increasing longevity Rob Jasmin</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 117" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=117"> Longer lives, fewer children The origins of toda</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 118" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=118"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 119" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=119"> with these and other treatments to be increasingl</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 120" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=120"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 121" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=121"> Unstoppable trends FIGURE 2. HEALTHCARE’S </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 122" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=122"> OUTLOOK 2019 Digital disruption Phil Watson</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 123" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=123"> In manufacturing, the way goods are made and even</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 124" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=124"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 125" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=125"> Artificial intelligence Machines are getting smar</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 126" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=126"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 127" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=127"> Blockchain Blockchain is another disruptive tech</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 128" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=128"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 129" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=129"> Blockchain: Users & uses GOVERNMENT & CENTRAL B</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 130" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=130"> OUTLOOK 2019 </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 131" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=131"> While digital disruption can take its time, howev</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 132" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=132"> 132 OUTLOOK TEAM </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 133" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=133"> IAIN ARMITAGE GLOBAL HEAD OF CAP</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 134" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=134"> Glossary ASSET CLASS DEFINITIONS Cash is repre</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 135" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=135"> The Euro Stoxx 600 represents large-, mid- </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 136" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=136"> Disclosures In any instance whe</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 137" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=137"> transactions, the investor considering options sh</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 138" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=138"> may result in a downgrade of a mo</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 139" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=139"> There can be no assurance that the use of any BRR</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 140" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=140"> </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 141" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=141"> </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 142" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=142"> </a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 143" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=143"> According to the Financial Times’ Professiona</a> <a title="Outlook 2019 page 144" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/70fe3ae2?page=144"> Private Banking for Global Citizens</a>