<br />
markers. Again, that is an area where we were able to<br />
make progress by developing a cross-country historical<br />
index on the real housing prices, allowing one to look at<br />
the behavior of housing around a crisis. Curiously, rating<br />
agencies have fairly little predictive power, controlling for<br />
other variables. They tend to be lagging indicators. When<br />
a rating agency downgrades a country, it typically means<br />
that things went wrong a while ago.<br />
<br />
Where do you see the “this time is different”<br />
syndrome now?<br />
The dramatic “This Time Is Different” was the policymak-<br />
ers going around beating their chests that they had done<br />
things better, wiser, and smarter than their predecessors.<br />
Look at the September 2009 G20 communiqué which<br />
boasted “it wor<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 1" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=1"> Now playing: Great Contraction </a> Now playing: Great Contraction <a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 2" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=2"> ! !(!$)$ &!+.% </a> ! !(!$)$ &!+.% <a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 3" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=3">November/December 2011COVER STORY36 A H</a> November/December 2011COVER STORY36 A H<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 4" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=4">INTEGRITY20 The Value of Our Industry </a> INTEGRITY20 The Value of Our Industry <a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 5" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=5">November/December 2011 VOL. 22, NO. 6CFA Ma</a> November/December 2011 VOL. 22, NO. 6CFA Ma<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 6" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=6">IN SUMMARYOde on a Grecian Downturn“Heard me</a> IN SUMMARYOde on a Grecian Downturn“Heard me<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 7" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=7">AnnouncesThe First Annual SPIVA® Awards 2011$</a> AnnouncesThe First Annual SPIVA® Awards 2011$<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 8" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=8">In FocusBack to the BasicsBY JOHN ROGERS, CFA</a> In FocusBack to the BasicsBY JOHN ROGERS, CFA<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 9" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=9"> How to Think about the UnthinkableIn 1</a> How to Think about the UnthinkableIn 1<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 10" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=10">LETTERScontrol of their socio-economic system</a> LETTERScontrol of their socio-economic system<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 11" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=11">otherwise have limited the company’s ability to c</a> otherwise have limited the company’s ability to c<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 12" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=12">LETTERSprofessional value and career options.</a> LETTERSprofessional value and career options.<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 13" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=13">ViewpointChina: Unhedged Risk in Your Portfolio?</a> ViewpointChina: Unhedged Risk in Your Portfolio?<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 14" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=14">governments totaling more than 15 percent of GDP.</a> governments totaling more than 15 percent of GDP.<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 15" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=15">ViewpointPublic Policy and Pension PromisesC</a> ViewpointPublic Policy and Pension PromisesC<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 16" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=16">FIGURE 2Public Pension Plan Investment R</a> FIGURE 2Public Pension Plan Investment R<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 17" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=17">ViewpointClimate Change Disclosures: Should Anal</a> ViewpointClimate Change Disclosures: Should Anal<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 18" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=18">S&P 500 and the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE) 200 </a> S&P 500 and the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE) 200 <a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 19" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=19">to investors, but the stock market imposes great</a> to investors, but the stock market imposes great<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 20" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=20">ACommitment TOExcellenceThe CFA Institute Conti</a> ACommitment TOExcellenceThe CFA Institute Conti<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 21" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=21">20 YEARSGerald L. Fuller, CFAClifford A. Glads</a> 20 YEARSGerald L. Fuller, CFAClifford A. Glads<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 22" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=22">MarketINTEGRITYThe Value of Our IndustryAre</a> MarketINTEGRITYThe Value of Our IndustryAre<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 23" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=23">GIPS Standards Taking Root in Latin AmericaBY</a> GIPS Standards Taking Root in Latin AmericaBY<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 24" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=24">MarketINTEGRITYIs Global “Say on Pay” Here to</a> MarketINTEGRITYIs Global “Say on Pay” Here to<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 25" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=25">concerned parties in submitting comments on this </a> concerned parties in submitting comments on this <a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 26" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=26">EthicsFORUMPensions and the Duty of Loyalty</a> EthicsFORUMPensions and the Duty of Loyalty<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 27" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=27">DISCIPLINARY NOTICESRevocationsOn 8 August 20</a> DISCIPLINARY NOTICESRevocationsOn 8 August 20<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 28" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=28">EthicsFORUMautomatically suspending his CFA </a> EthicsFORUMautomatically suspending his CFA <a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 29" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=29">3&(*45&3#:čċ%&$&.#&3"/%4"7&ĕČĊĊ7UGRTQOQVKQPCN</a> 3&(*45&3#:čċ%&$&.#&3"/%4"7&ĕČĊĊ7UGRTQOQVKQPCN<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 30" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=30">PortfolioPERFORMANCESettle for More?KEY P</a> PortfolioPERFORMANCESettle for More?KEY P<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 31" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=31">of policies to investors. Investors, on the other</a> of policies to investors. Investors, on the other<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 32" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=32">PortfolioPERFORMANCEPRACTICEPROFESSIONALa m</a> PortfolioPERFORMANCEPRACTICEPROFESSIONALa m<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 33" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=33">AnalystAGENDAAn Overlooked Value Driver?P</a> AnalystAGENDAAn Overlooked Value Driver?P<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 34" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=34">AnalystAGENDAimproved communication, redefine</a> AnalystAGENDAimproved communication, redefine<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 35" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=35">because they don’t have a project management back</a> because they don’t have a project management back<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 36" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=36">Private CLIENT CORNERThe Domicil</a> Private CLIENT CORNERThe Domicil<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 37" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=37">don’t pay any income tax, but with that US$5,000 </a> don’t pay any income tax, but with that US$5,000 <a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 38" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=38">A Half-OpenDoor </a> A Half-OpenDoor <a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 39" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=39">In the offices of Hon</a> In the offices of Hon<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 40" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=40">has developed. The heart of the problem is the pa</a> has developed. The heart of the problem is the pa<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 41" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=41"> And investment in these bonds is no longer</a> And investment in these bonds is no longer<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 42" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=42">HIGHER EDUCATION is perhaps the world’s leastcon</a> HIGHER EDUCATION is perhaps the world’s leastcon<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 43" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=43">are able to raise prices for decades at significa</a> are able to raise prices for decades at significa<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 44" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=44">Roksa found that 45 percent of U.S. college stude</a> Roksa found that 45 percent of U.S. college stude<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 45" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=45"> The more serious risk may be to the U.S. e</a> The more serious risk may be to the U.S. e<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 46" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=46">THREE YEARS AFTER THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS,ev</a> THREE YEARS AFTER THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS,ev<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 47" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=47">are remarkable. The U.S. crisis is so average. We</a> are remarkable. The U.S. crisis is so average. We<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 48" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=48">markers. Again, that is an area where we were abl</a> markers. Again, that is an area where we were abl<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 49" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=49">Adaptive AsIn an award-winning article, William </a> Adaptive AsIn an award-winning article, William <a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 50" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=50"> A key assumption underpinning the traditio</a> A key assumption underpinning the traditio<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 51" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=51">important to ignore when setting the policy portf</a> important to ignore when setting the policy portf<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 52" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=52">EMEAVOICEA New Era for International Accounti</a> EMEAVOICEA New Era for International Accounti<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 53" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=53">CFA InstituteBRIEFSTen Years OnScholarship </a> CFA InstituteBRIEFSTen Years OnScholarship <a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 54" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=54"> CFA InstituteBRIEFSIn Memoriam John</a> CFA InstituteBRIEFSIn Memoriam John<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 55" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=55">AmericasOUTLOOKPlanting SeedsBY ROBERT JOH</a> AmericasOUTLOOKPlanting SeedsBY ROBERT JOH<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 56" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=56">Asia-PacificFOCUSCommitment to Lifelong Learni</a> Asia-PacificFOCUSCommitment to Lifelong Learni<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 57" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=57"></a> <a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 58" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=58">Chapter 10Of Laundry andLavish Compensation</a> Chapter 10Of Laundry andLavish Compensation<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 59" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=59">QA STUDIO*OPPORTUNITY HASNOWHERE TO HI</a> QA STUDIO*OPPORTUNITY HASNOWHERE TO HI<a title="November/December 2011 CFA Magazine page 60" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/761a93ac?page=60"> No Matter How You Say It,AFG Speaks Globa</a> No Matter How You Say It,AFG Speaks Globa