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<br /> Wir bewegen Marken<br /> November 2014<br /> THE ROI FROM TV ADVERTISING<br /> Fundamental insights into the sales-promoting effect of TV<br /> ROI<br /> ANALYZER<br /> <br /> CONTENTS<br /> 03 Editorial<br /> 04 Problem to be solved<br /> The brand is king<br /> 08 Methodology<br /> Long-term vs. short-term impact<br /> 18 Basic findings<br /> Cha-ching!<br /> 22 Umbrella brand effects<br /> Is a little extra OK?<br /> 26 Merchandise categories<br /> Apples or oranges? As long as it’s fruit!<br /> 34 Campaign strategy<br /> Sliced or whole?<br /> 40 Retail stores<br /> The bill is right<br /> 48 Documentation of methodology<br /> Not just bean-counting<br /> 62 Validation<br /> No complaints<br /> EDITORIAL<br /> Dear readers,<br /> In today’s fragmented and complex digital media world, the question<br /> of advertising effectiveness is more important than ever.<br<a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 1" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=1"> Wir bewegen Marken November 2014 </a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 2" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=2"> </a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 3" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=3"> CONTENTS 03 Editorial 04 Problem to be solved</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 4" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=4"> EDITORIAL Dear readers, In today’s fragment</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 5" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=5"> investment (ROI). ROI is the most precise indicat</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 6" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=6"> PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED 4 PROBLEM TO B</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 7" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=7"> THE VALUE OF ADVERTISING It pays to invest in TV</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 8" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=8"> 70 PERCENT OF SALES ARE TO FIRST-CHOICE BUYERS T</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 9" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=9"> ADVERTISING CREATES LOYALTY Another GfK study fo</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 10" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=10"> METHODOLOGY Long-</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 11" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=11"> LONG-TERM DRIVERS OF MARKET SUCCESS ARE DECISIVE </a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 12" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=12"> ANALYSIS OF A BROAD DATA BASE The ROI Analyzer m</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 13" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=13"> DATA BASIS AND MODELING FOR THE ROI ANALYZER Data</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 14" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=14"> BRAND LOYALTY AS THE KEY VARIABLE So-called “loy</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 15" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=15"> MARKET SHARE, SALES ATTRIBUTABLE TO PROMOTIONS AN</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 16" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=16"> MODELING THE ADVERTISING EFFECT FOR A ONE-YEAR PE</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 17" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=17"> Regression model Simulation of purchases i</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 18" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=18"> These two paths yield different numbers of purcha</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 19" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=19"> ROI UMBRELLA BRAND ROI BRAND </a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 20" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=20"> BASIC FINDINGS Cha-ching! M</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 21" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=21"> TELEVISION ADVERTISING PAYS OFF Our findings are </a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 22" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=22"> 20 BASIC FINDINGS</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 23" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=23"> WIDE RANGE OF ROI VALUES The sales effect of adv</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 24" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=24"> UMBRELLA BRAND EFFECTS Is a</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 25" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=25"> UMBRELLA BRAND EFFECTS OF ADVERTISING First, the</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 26" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=26"> STRONG SPILL-OVER EFFECTS The average results fo</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 27" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=27"> ROI UMBRELLA BRAND ROI UMBRELLA BRAND ROI BRAND</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 28" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=28"> MERCHANDISE CATEGORIES Apple</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 29" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=29"> The question of whether or how often a consumer p</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 30" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=30"> ADVERTISING PAYS OFF FOR PRODUCTS IN ALL MARKET S</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 31" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=31"> SHORT-TERM BRAND ROI BY </a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 32" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=32"> VARYING LOYALTY LEVELS IN THE MERCHANDISE CATEGOR</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 33" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=33"> PURCHASE PROBABILITIES BY LOYALTY LEVEL AND MERCH</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 34" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=34"> The models employed for calculating ROI also reve</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 35" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=35"> In summary, we can note that brand loyalty is the</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 36" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=36"> CAMPAIGN STRATEGY Sliced or</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 37" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=37"> The success of the campaigns studied in the ROI A</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 38" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=38"> A somewhat different result is produced when we c</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 39" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=39"> DISTRIBUTION OF ADVERTISING INVESTMENTS The next</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 40" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=40"> CAMPAIGN PRESENCE AND PERCENTAGE OF LOYAL BUYERS </a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 41" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=41"> TOTAL ROI BY NUMBER OF ADVERTISING THEMES EMPLOYE</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 42" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=42"> RETAIL STORES The bill is r</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 43" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=43"> RETAIL STORES AS ADVERTISERS Retail stores play </a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 44" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=44"> MODEL EXPANSION The dependent variable in this e</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 45" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=45"> RETAIL STORES 43</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 46" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=46"> TV ADVERTISING PAYS OFF FOR RETAILERS We analyze</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 47" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=47"> ROI OF FULL-RANGE RETAILER </a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 48" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=48"> SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, OUTLOOK As the marketing ar</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 49" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=49"> than 40 percent of total ROI. This is an importan</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 50" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=50"> DOCUMENTATION OF METHODOLOGY </a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 51" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=51"> In the Methodology section at the start of this b</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 52" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=52"> MERGING THE DATA In general, data merging refers</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 53" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=53"> By contrast, specific characteristics only pertain</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 54" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=54"> MERGER OPTIMIZATION No matter how sophisticated </a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 55" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=55"> An adjustment can be made for this measurement er</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 56" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=56"> CALCULATION OF ADVERTISING EXPOSURES The P val</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 57" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=57"> The P value is calculated as follows: P value of </a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 58" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=58"> WEIGHTING OF EXPOSURES Obviously, an advertising</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 59" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=59"> At the lowest discount factor α = 1.00, advertisi</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 60" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=60"> BRAND LOYALTY LEVELS Brand loyalty levels are of</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 61" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=61"> EXAMPLE DETERMINATION OF MARKET SHARE All purchas</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 62" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=62"> PERCENTAGE OF SALES ATTRIBUTABLE TO PRICE PROMOTI</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 63" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=63"> SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES The ROI Analyzer als</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 64" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=64"> VALIDATION No complaints A </a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 65" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=65"> VALIDATION After the advertising effectiveness m</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 66" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=66"> </a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 67" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=67"> for additional research topics visit www.sevenone</a> <a title="zmags_71M_ROI_Analyzer_e page 68" href="http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/ccfda42f?page=68"> SevenOne Media GmbH Medienallee 4 85774 Unterföhr</a>