The Baltic Sea Region has been hit disproportionately hard by the global crisis but is now
expected to rebound quicker than others
The impact of the crisis is
Foreword
The 2009 edition of the State of the Region
Report o?ers like most economic reviews over the
past 12 months troubling but essential reading.
The Baltic Sea Region has been hit hard by the
Table of contents
Key messages
Executive Summary
The 2009 State of the Region Report, the sixth
in this series of annual evaluations of competi-
tiveness and cooperation across the Baltic Sea
Region, provides a perspective on th STATEOFTHEREEGIOIONNRERPEOPORTRTMTTM 2009 Boosting the Top of Europe
Key messages The Baltic Sea Region has been hit disproportionately hard by the global crisis but is now expected to rebound quicker than others The impact of the crisis is
Foreword The 2009 edition of the State of the Region Report o?ers like most economic reviews over the past 12 months troubling but essential reading. The Baltic Sea Region has been hit hard by the
Table of contents Key messages Executive Summary The 2009 State of the Region Report, the sixth in this series of annual evaluations of competi- tiveness and cooperation across the Baltic Sea Region, provides a perspective on th
developments in the global economy. Among the countries of the Region with less favorable public ?nances at the outset of the crisis, many were also su?ering from severe macroeconomic imbalances as t
Figure C: Competitiveness pro?le of the Baltic Sea Region Micro (20) GDP pc (26) GCI (17) Macro (19) Business Environment Quality (22) Company Sophistication
Figure D: Assessing the EU Baltic Sea Region strategy YES Addressing real problems of the Region? Providing better structures to address them? LIMITED the competit
informal channels, might be more in linw with a countrys needs and easier to accept than from a far-away international organization. But even with these improvements, shocks will continue to occur.
Introduction Why a State of the Region Report? Economies around the globe are in turmoil. The downturn is signi?cantly deeper and more global than any- thing experienced since the Great Depression
antshave gained in population but the decrease elsewhere, especially in north-western Russia and the Baltics, was even higher. In 2009 the Regions labor force of 27.5 million employees is decreas-
This section of the State of the Region Report describes the context for cross- national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region. In the last twelve months, the global ?nancial and economic crisis has b
Section A: The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Regional cooperation among neighboring countries, on upgrading competitiveness as well as on other policies,
The dramatic deterioration in the global economy has triggered major stabilization efforts to shore up ?nancial systems and led to monetary and ?scal policy actions of an unprecedent
The extent of the economic crisis soon led The most immediate attention was directed to comparisons with the great recession of the to the ?nancial syste
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region instruments. As the traditional interest rate chan- nel was not working su?ciently, Central Banks started to purc
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region After having ?nally caught up with US growth rates in 2006, Europe is now again in danger of falling behin
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region But the worsening global ?nancial market condi- tions quickly a?ected the markets in the Baltic Sea Region. Those
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region and 6% in 2009, following a 1% growth rate for the total of 2008. For 2010, GDP is projected to be ?at. Th
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region that looks at the lessons that can be drawn from the Nordic experience when thinking about restructur- ing the ar
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region surplus for the most recent years, reaching 3.8% of GDP in 2007. An important driver of growth had been th
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region which are responsible for a large share of govern- ment spending. In terms of more support for the business secto
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region expected further contraction of 4% in 2009. For 2010, the outlook is for a resumption of growth at 0.4%.
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region 2009/2010 amounts to 1.5% of GDP, with most of the resources directed at the labor market. Because of the automat
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Figure 10: Policies to Support the Financial Sector across EU countries Discretionary Stimulus overal
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region a consequence, the government de?cit will increase, reaching -2.9% of GDP. Finland is thus in danger of hitting t
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region lending, together with the in?ows of capital in re- lation to a number of big aluminum investments, create
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region spending, as well as an increase of 1 percentage point in personal income tax. Further cuts and tax increases equ
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region than 20%. Bankruptcy rates increased, threaten- ing a number of well known companies like Opel and Karstad
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region European Central Bank (ECB), which had started to reduce interest rates and directly provide liquid- ity starting
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region and thus further exacerbating the crisis. Overall, GDP dropped by 15% in the ?rst quarter, with early data
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region the public sector by 9.5% and maternity bene?ts by 50% are being discussed. Instead of applying for IMF assistanc
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region 35). The minimum wage was decreased from LVL 180 to LVL 140. As of February 2009, excise taxes on beer wer
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region ing Baltic countries. Unemployment had dropped to 7.1% in 2008; this was still the highest rate in the region, bu
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region equity markets abroad, especially the UK. By the third quarter of 2008, private sector external debt was U
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Assessment Four main observations stick out from this discus- sion of the macroeconomic context in the Baltic Se
The level of regional collaboration efforts remains high, with no visible impact yet of the economic crisis Innovation and environment issues are a key concern across many of the activ
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region policy, where the CBSS works with the social partners, i.e. Trade Unions and employers organi- zations in the Re
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region and provide input to the Copenhagen UN Cli- mate Summit (COP15) in December. The Nordic countries have ini
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Baltic Sea Region as a ?agship-project in the framework of the EU Baltic Sea Strategy. In youth poli
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region BaltMets current project portfolio is support- ed by a total budget of 10 million euros.
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region the Baltic Sea Region will be an important tool box for health region. Fostering collaboration a
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region A key priority of BDF in 2008/2009 has been the provision of input to the EU Baltic Sea R
SECTION A The context for cross-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region There are a number of reasons of why a dense network of regional collaboration e?orts is high- ly likel
Political conditions in the Region are stable; no new problems have emerged that would fundamentally undermine collaboration in the Region Existing challenges with regards t
The crisis has shifted the focus to policies controlled at the national level and led to a divergence of needs and perceptions across the Region Regional collaboration has not lo
the gap. But the challenge is not only dealing with the actual economic reality of the crisis; it is also dealing with the di?erences in how the countries in the Region perceive the crisis. This peri
This section of the State of the Region Report tracks the status quo of current competitiveness across the Baltic Sea Region, following up on the assessments done in previous Reports. Data is analyze
Section B: Competitiveness in the Baltic Sea Region Competitiveness captures the medium-term economic fundamentals that ultimately determine the level of prosperity an economy and its cit
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region spree, the private sector will often even cut spending with the view that the public debt that will have to be covered through taxes or spen
The Baltic Sea Region remains one of the most prosperous regions internationally despite a signi?cant drop in prosperity in the wake of the crisis So far productivity has taken t
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region The contraction after the fast growth of the last few years has, of course, not been limited to the Baltic Sea Region. The
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Within the Baltic Sea Region, there has been a dramatic reversal of fortunes. Countries that used to grow at high rate
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region From prosperity to the quality of life GDP per capita is one indicator of prosperity, but there is a recognition that other factors, like s
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Figure 16: Prosperity decomposition in selected cross-national regions, 2009 GDP per Capita (PPP) OCEANIA (+1) NAFTA
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Within the Baltic Sea Region, Norway (mainland economy) will continue to register the highest level of GDP per hour worked wi
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region countries remains between a third (Russia) and close to half (Baltics) of the level in the Nordic countries. Poland is expected to be
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region than an average working week of production was lost per capita. Within the Baltic Sea Region, Iceland retained its lead on
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Figure 22: Relative price changes, European countries Price level, EU-27=100 160
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Figure 23: World export market shares, Baltic Sea Region World market shares % 7 % 6 % 5 % 4 % Goods Services Total GDP (FX) GDP (PP
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Figure 24: Domestic investment over time, Baltic Sea Region and EU-27 Gross investment in % of GDP 23 22 21 20 19 BSR EU-27 1
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Outward foreign direct investment (FDI) is an important indicator for the ability of local companies to transfer t
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region global economy, the Regions own attractiveness for investment, both from foreign and domestic sources, is only average. Pate
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Figure 28: Overview on investment activity in the Baltic Sea Region World market share % 10 8 6 FDI inflow - annual FDI inflow - 3
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Figure 30: Level and growth rate of patenting in the US Patents per Capita (million), 2008 300 United States
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region The exceptions are the countries in deep economic crisis, i.e. Iceland and the Baltic countries, where both productivity and employment have
The Baltic Sea Region remains one of the most competitive regions in the global economy, supporting its high level of prosperity Company sophistication and strong institut
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region become very visible. For the ranking methodol- ogy the new approach developed by a team under the leadership of Professor Michael Porter is
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Geography and competitiveness: Implications for the Baltic Sea Region Over the last few years, the role of geographic fac- tors has
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Macroeconomic competitiveness Macroeconomic factors set the overall context in which companies operate but they do not directly in?uence th
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region at an aggregate level in balance. Fiscal policy largely has to ensure that the balance of public revenues and spending remain within
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Figure 33: Microeconomic competitiveness over time, Baltic Sea Region Micro (21) 2008 Micro (20) 2001 Business Environment Quality (2
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Figure 34: Factor input conditions over time, Baltic Sea Region Year 2001
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Figure 36: WEF IT Readiness index, Baltic Sea Region 1. Denmark 2. Sweden 6. Finland7. Iceland (+1) 8. Norway (+2)18. Estonia (+2) 18. BSR
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Figure 37: Innovation in the Baltic Sea Region Firm Activities Firm investments Business R&D expenditures (% of GDP)
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Figure 38: Context for Strategy and Rivalry in the Baltic Sea Region Indicator Rank vs
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Figure 40: World Bank Doing Business Index, Baltic Sea Region Dimension
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Figure 42: Supporting and related industries in the Baltic Sea Region Indicator Rank vs.
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Cluster policy: the state of the debate The Baltic Sea Region has over the last few years seen a huge rise in cluster efforts, mostl
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Figure 44: Demand sophistication in the Baltic Sea Region Indicator Rank vs. 2008
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Figure 46: Company sophistication in selected Baltic Sea Region countries Indicator
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Figure 47: Competitiveness pro?le: Sweden (2009), author's analysis. Related and Industr Supporting ies (4) Demand C
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Figure 48: Competitiveness pro?le: Denmark (2009), author's analysis. Related and Industr Supporting ies (4) Demand C
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region some drop in public trust of politicians and the perceived transparency of policy making, possibly related to issues of party funding discus
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Figure 51: Competitiveness pro?le: Norway (2009), author's analysis. Related and Industri Supporting es (19) Demand C
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Figure 52: Competitiveness pro?le: Iceland (2009), author's analysis. Related and Industri Supporting es (30) Demand Co nditio
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Region, gaining nine ranks since last year. This is the best rank the country has achieved since com- parative data has been availabl
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region tional quality. Company sophistication remains the key weakness, but it registered huge improve- ments, especially in organizational practic
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region strategy is down. Higher taxation as a consequence of the governments crisis measures are one con- cern, and a signi?cantly less pos
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Figure 57: Competitiveness pro?le: Russia (2009), author's analysis. Related and Industri Supporting es (65) Demand Co ndition
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region patterns characterizing the Region: Germany ranks signi?cantly higher on micro- than on mac- roeconomic competitiveness. Lithuania, P
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Figure 59: Competitiveness and prosperity Competitiveness ranking
The Baltic Sea Region remains the Top of Europe on the goals of the Lisbon Agenda A cross Europe, a number of structural weaknesses have led to overall disappointing outcomes
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region able for the many countries in the Baltic Sea Region that are equivalent to NUTS-2 regions. To aggregate the data, we ?rst
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region Figure 63: Lisbon Agenda challenges for selected Baltic Sea Region countries Denmark · Labor market participation of old workers and
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region across the countries from the Region; these posi- tions have not changed signi?cantly since then. Overall, the analysis of the Baltic Sea Re
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region of supporting innovation, further deepening of the internal market, and modernizing the labor market also continue to be seen as impo
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region nomic policy choices. The Internal Market was for some countries (Germany, UK) a way to increa
SECTION B Competitiveness of the Baltic Sea Region geographic levels, from the local and regional, the national, the Baltic Sea, and ?nally to the
Deepening regional integration within the Baltic Sea Region remains a crucially important goal, and will go some way to addressing key weaknesses challenging the Region Moving tow
providing better information and by support- ing the implementation of actions. The EU Baltic Sea Region strategy pro- vides
This part of the State of the Region Report discusses the EU Baltic Sea Region Strategy. Last year's Report provided background information on the Baltic Sea Region's deep integration into the Europe
Section C: The EU Baltic Sea Region strategy The Baltic Sea Region is closely integrated into the European Union, with a deep network of institutional and contractual ties. The Euro- p
1. Drafting the EU Baltic Sea Region strategy: the perspective from the European Commission This section has been written by Anders Lindholm, DG Regio, who has been intimately involved in the C
education, and entrepreneurship, as well as the functioning of the single market. Ensuring the competitiveness of energy markets is also a high priority challenge to be addressed. Priority issues for
SECTION C Europe, Energy, and the Environment Key issues for the Baltic Sea Region The EU Baltic Sea Strategy addresses, in a con- crete way, the four key issues facing the Baltic Sea Regio
SECTION C Europe, Energy, and the Environment Key issues for the Baltic Sea Region the concrete implementation of the actions and projects. In order to ensure a full ?ow
2. Implementing the EU Baltic Sea Region strategy: the perspective from VINNOVA This section has been written by Karin Nygård Skalman, VINNOVA, with the support of Emily Wise, Research Fellow a
For societal partners, cooperation between the countries can lead to joint actions in order to solve future challenges for society. Increased linkages between the Baltic Sea Region countries and its
SECTION C Europe, Energy, and the Environment Key issues for the Baltic Sea Region Innovative SMEs and networks. This part of the program aims at strengthening the S
The EU Baltic Sea Region Strategy is an important step forward for regional collaboration To reap the full bene?ts of the Strategy, countries in the Region now need to act on aligning
SECTION C Europe, Energy, and the Environment Key issues for the Baltic Sea Region economic pillar of the strategy. There seems to be a consensus in the Region that the proposed strat- egy
SECTION C Europe, Energy, and the Environment Key issues for the Baltic Sea Region and innovation, are under way but there is a mul- titude of e?orts from di?erent groups within the
SECTION C Europe, Energy, and the Environment Key issues for the Baltic Sea Region respects there is an interesting parallel to the Lisbon Agenda process after the 2005 relaunch. The EU Bal
Final observations The year that has passed has been a trying time for the Baltic Sea Region, as it has been for the world economy at large. Economic outcome indicators have dropped with a ferocity
About the author Dr Christian H. M. Ketels Dr. Christian Ketels is a member of the Harvard Business School faculty at Professor Michael E. Porters Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness
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Baltic Development Forum The leading high-level network for decision-makers from business, politics, academia and media in the Baltic Sea Region. Nyga
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